Personal Economics 101

If you want the future to change for you, you have to change.  How to get whatever you want: Ask Ask intelligently: Set goals. Asking is the beginning of receiving. Goals must be written. Be specific. You must write your plan. Success is not in short supply. It isn't rationed. It's like an ocean. If that's true, what's the problem? Some people go to the ocean with a teaspoon.  Believe you can get what you want like a child. Ask with faith. You won't get everything you want, but if you work at goals you will get plenty. Resolve: Promising yourself you'll never give up. Attitude disease: Indifference Attitude disease: Doubt Attitude disease: Worry Attitude disease: Overcaution Attitude disease: Pessimism Attitude diseases: Complaining Our lives are affected mostly by the way we think things are, not how they actually are. Everything begins with thought.

In a previous post , I mentioned about ignoring all the noise of the talking heads and experts on TV and in the media in general.  Case in point. I was looking at the Australian dollar futures this week and did a quick search for any news. Well, I found two articles. One talked about how the Aussie dollar was on a down-trend (true) and it would go to .70. The other claimed the Aussie could hit .50. Well, the chart below kind of tells you why you might want to ignore the experts and just focus on what the market does. After those two articles were published, the Australian dollar went from about .7345 to .7440 in two days. If you could have caught the bottom and top (very hard to do, but this is for illustrative purposes only), that would have been worth $900 per contract.  Pay attention to the markets. They will do what they do, regardless of what the "experts" think.  

Notice each high is actually a bit lower than the last high? This indicates a weakness in the market. That's why I'm in cash right now, except for a few minor positions in telecom and short-term treasuries. 

I thought this was an interesting chart pattern for the SPY. Note the gaps for the last three days (June 18, 19, and 20). Futures as of 1 am on the 21st indicate another gap, but this time up. We'll see what happens.  If it gaps up, and the gap doesn't close in the first 30 minutes, I might place a long trade.  Lower lows, without higher highs, signal weakness. Tread with caution. Remember your stops. Calculate your positions size based on calculated losses first. 

Success is something you attract, not something you pursue.  Success is looking for a nice place to say.  True happiness is not contained in what you get. True happiness is contained in what you become.  For things to change for you, you have to change you. Life and business is like the changing seasons. You cannot change the seasons, but you can change yourself. Learn how to handle the winters (problems) Learn how to take advantage of the spring (opportunity) Learn how to take care of your crops all summer All gardens will be attacked All values must be defended Learn how to reap in the fall without complaint or apology. Take full responsibility for what happens to you. It's not what happens, it's what you do. You don't have to be the same after tonight, only by choice. Major step to success: discipline and self-motivation. Find out how things work. Put the information in your journal, not your head. Study. Be childishly curious. Read. Learn ...

After increasing production levels, along with Russia, in May by nearly 100,000 barrels per day, there is now talk of that Saudi Arabia will continue to increase production in June. This comes after general signals about supply increases . The price of oil has fallen (WTI) from nearly $73 per barrel to close at $65.56 (Jul 2018 contract) on Friday, June 8. As discussed at OilPrice.com : "The fascinating dynamic between the three most important players here – the US, Russia and the Saudis – is going to tell the real story of what the final outcome from the OPEC meeting will be and where oil prices are going to go from here." This climate of rising supply, even if only imagined, may drive these prices lower when the markets open today, June 10, at 5 pm CDT. That would be an opportunity to short, but I may wait to see if it gaps.  There is already supply areas around $65.80 and $66.10, with some demand at $64.90. We'll have to see what the market does.  Update a...

In light of my post the other day about predicting an economic disaster , how about some who will hope for an economic disaster, or at least a recession? Just because they hate President Trump?  Bill Maher openly hopes for a recession -- IJR Bill Maher Says He’s ‘Hoping for’ a Recession to ‘Get Rid of Trump’ -- SFGate “Because I think one you get rid of Trump is a crashing economy. So please, bring on the recession,” he said. “Sorry if that hurts people, but it’s either root for a recession or you lose your democracy.” What an idiot.  I find this typical though. Politics above everything else.

Doing something useful when you feel least like doing anything almost guarantees a productive day. From Entrenepeur Magazine. Good advice. 6 Things Successful People do Before 9 a.m.   Successful people do whatever they need to do even when they don't feel like it. Toughen up. - Dwayne Johnson

When will economic disaster strike? Well, according to the Democratic Party, it should have already.  From Investor's Business Daily: Just last November, for instance, a blog post on the  Economic Policy Institute's website  informed us that "Republican tax plan will reduce American competitiveness." That was, to be kind, wide of the mark. Similarly, the liberal Brookings Institution  opined in March of last year  that "Trump's 'America First' budget will leave the economy running behind." Didn't happen. Going back even further, many economists and pundits were wrong — dead wrong — about Trumponomics. But to this day they can't bring themselves to admit it. Imprisoned by the illogic of their own liberal ideology, they all saw not just failure, but instant disaster. They still do. We've run the following quotes in IBD before, but in light of this new report they bear repeating: "We are probably looking at a global ...

You can't time the markets, so stay fully invested with a diversified portfolio. That's the advice from financial magazines, stock brokers, and other "experts."  Bullshit. Why in the hell would you want to ride out a bear market (an average of 37 percent decline) when you could be in cash?  Another nice little piece of advice:  The market always comes back. Sure it does. The market turned over in late 2007 and declined 53 percent (based on the SP500 EFT SPY) and didn't recover fully until late in 2013. That is about 6 years. I don't know about you, but I don't want to wait 6 years to get back to even. If you're near retirement or actually retired, you just can't.  Why do they tell you to be fully invested? Simply because it's in their best interests, not yours.  Stock brokers, mutual funds, banks, EFTs, and just about anyone who makes fees off of you owning stock certainly doesn't want you to sell. For one thing, the higher the ba...

Update June 18: Entered position on June 11 at 15.48. Currently at 17.18.  Update after market close: My position in AMD stopped out after about 90 minutes for a loss of $80. Seems the IBD buy point did not work out. After a high of 15.96, AMD closed down .77 at 14.90. See below for details. Yesterday, IBD was all excited about AMD. The company announced new chips at a trade show. IBD bases their buy-zone on a weekly chart which shows it close to high points reached in the previous 18 months. But, look at a daily chart below, and you can see a slightly different view, one that I would have reacted to if AMD had been on my radar (I can't track 7,000 stocks, sorry).  I think a buy point arose in early May, when the price gapped up and then passed 11.31. That showed demand for the stock, and the trend started up as well. But if AMD does open at or above 15.75, I may pick up some shares and see what happens. I'll put a stop just under 15 so I'm only riski...

I tend to ignore the noise of the news when it comes to investing. Talking heads on TV, opinions of market "experts" and predictions from gurus just confuse the issues.  I follow the market. It makes me a technical guy. So be it. I do pay attention to some fundamentals. For example, I don't invest in a company that doesn't make money, no matter how crazy investors get. Take Tesla, for example. Won't touch it.  Talk is cheap. The market is going to do what the market does. Millions of buyers and sellers dictate markets. Guys like Jim Cramer on Mad Money might make a ton of money, but he doesn't know where the market is going any more than you or I do.  It's big institutional money that drives markets. So if you're a long-term investor, just pay attention to the trend, and invest in the broad market. You really need to know what you're doing to invest for shorter term gains.  The market is generally like an escalator, with you playing with a ...

"You are not entitled to anything, but there isn't anything you can't earn." - Taylor Swift. This is from a video by Ashton Kutcher. Some of the words he speaks come from Steve Jobs, who he played in the movie "Jobs" filmed in 2013. Still good advice. 

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