Personal Economics 101

By Gary Halbert Between the Lines U.S. home prices soared by 18.4% in October alone over year-ago levels. That was actually slightly below the annual increase of 19.1% in September. Home prices are on fire, and no one knows how this unprecedented bull market will end. Here you can see what US home prices have done over the last 50+ years. The price rise has been spectacular, with no end in sight. Since the last low in 2010, median home prices have more than doubled from near $200,000 to above $400,000 today. The median home sale price in the US was $404,700 at the end of the 3Q. It is considerably higher in certain popular zip codes. Those would include Phoenix, Tampa and Miami just to name a few. Minneapolis and Chicago posted the smallest increases over the past year but still increased by 11.5%. The housing market has been strong thanks to rock-bottom mortgage rates, a limited supply of homes on the market and pent-up demand from consumers locked in last year by the pandemic. Many A...

From " Outliers: The Story of Success " by Malcolm Gladwell.  Genius is not everything—emotional and practical intelligence are also critical to success The man who invented the Intelligence Quotient (IQ) test was Lewis Terman, a professor of psychology at Stanford. His area of expertise was quantifying intelligence. In the early 1920s, he decided to dedicate his life to the study of singularly gifted kids. After a thorough vetting process through several rounds of tests given to elementary students in California, Terman selected a group of 1,470 children who had done brilliantly on the tests. The average IQ among the children was 140, and some had IQs as high as 200. He affectionately referred to these children as the “Termites,” and he dedicated his life to tracking their progress and life events. IQ matters, clearly, but only up to a point. An IQ of 100 is average and above 145 is considered genius, but an adult with an IQ of 180 is not more or less likely to win a Nobel P...

Editor's Note: The majority of states that are losing residents are run by Democrats; the majority of states that are gaining residents are run by Republicans. In addition to states, if you research which large cities are also experiencing low or negative growth, you'll find cities like Portland, Seattle, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston, etc., are also run by Democrats. Make of these facts as you wish, but to me it's obvious that what the left touches, the left destroys.) Massachusetts  (Democratic Governor, Republican Legislature) People pay a premium to reside in Massachusetts, ranking sixth out of 52 regions on MERIC’s cost of living index. About 54.8% of all cross-border moves are outbound. UebuNogami on Reddit offered one explanation for why Boston in particular is so expensive. “There’s not enough housing to satisfy the demand. Unions make construction extremely expensive, and a requirement for the developer to give away a certain number of units for nex...

U.S. equities finished higher to extend yesterday's gains, after a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence report showed increasing optimism. Despite the improved outlook, investors continued to grapple with the uncertainties surrounding the omicron variant and its economic impact.  President Biden spoke on COVID yesterday afternoon, announcing plans to distribute free at-home COVID testing kits and dispatch 1,000 members of the military to support hospitals, while avoiding any mention of lockdowns.  In other economic news, existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month, albeit at a smaller-than-expected pace, Q3 GDP was revised slightly higher and mortgage applications declined. On the equity front, Pfizer’s Paxlovid oral pill was granted an emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for treatment of COVID-19 disease in high-risk adults and pediatric patients,  CarMax posted upbeat quarterly results on record auto sales, while B...

U.S. equities began the holiday-shortened week on a down note, as uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of the omicron variant persists. All the major sectors were in the red, led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology, while Health Care issues were also lower despite Moderna's announcement of positive results of its COVID booster against omicron.  The markets also grappled with dampened expectations (in my opinion, this should be positive) regarding the passing of President Biden's social spending and climate plan after Democratic senator Joe Manchin said he won't support the bill.  In economic news, leading indicators accelerated more than expected and posted the ninth-straight monthly gain. In other equity news, Oracle Corporation confirmed last week's reports that it agreed to acquire Cerner Corporation for an equity value of $28.3 billion.  Treasuries were mixed, and the U.S. dollar was little changed, while crude oil prices tumbled, a...

  But...but...but I read in Newsweek that Tornados will be 9 times more strong by 2099. NINE TIMES STRONGER. Can you image a 'tornader' with winds of 2,700 mph?  Neither can anyone else.  Winter Tornados Will Be 9 Times Stronger by 2099 If Global Warming Isn't Curtailed

 

The bulls' attempt to extend yesterday's rally that was sparked by the Fed's decision to speed up the tapering of its asset purchases fell short, as U.S. equities did an about-face to finish lower amid continued worries over the omicron variant.  The markets also digested monetary policy decisions out of Europe, with the European Central Bank temporarily increasing its asset purchases and the Bank of England unexpectedly raising its benchmark interest rate.  Investors also sifted through a host of economic data that showed jobless claims modestly bounced off multi-decade lows, housing construction activity came in stronger than expected, manufacturing and services sector growth decelerated, and industrial production rose at a slightly smaller pace than anticipated.  In equity news, Lennar Corporation and Adobe traded lower following their earnings reports, while Accenture rallied in the wake of its earnings results and guidance.  Treasuries were mixed and the U.S. do...

Treasuries are mixed after seeing some pressure yesterday as the Federal Reserve expectedly announced that it will speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases. The yield on the 2-year note is declining 6 basis points to 0.61%, and the yield on the 10-year note is decreasing 3 bps to 1.43%, while the 30-year bond rate is ticking 1 basis point higher to 1.87%. Many stocks are up today as well.  Why? First of all, the market loves certainty. Knowing what to expect on the macroeconomic level next year goes a long way for investors that are closely watching their portfolios, as well as an assurance from the Fed that it is taking inflation seriously. Powell also balanced his rates outlook with a strong dose of optimism about demand and income, and confirmed that "we're making rapid progress toward maximum employment." Weekly initial jobless claims came in at a level of 206,000 for the week ended December 11, versus the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 200,000 and compar...

After reading (and attempting the solutions offered in some) several articles about SQL and CAGR,  I have reached the conclusion that none of them would stand testing in a real-world environment. For one thing, the SQL queries offered as examples are overly complex or don't use the correct math for calculating proper CAGR. Since most DBAs don't have an MBA or Finance degree, let me help.  The correct equation for calculating Compound Annual Growth Rate (as a percentage) is:  Some key points about CAGR:  The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is one of the most accurate ways to calculate and determine returns for anything that can rise or fall in value over time. Investors can compare the CAGR of two alternatives to evaluate how well one stock performed against other stocks in a peer group or a market index. The CAGR does not reflect investment risk. You can read a full article about CAGR  here .  To calculate the CAGR for an investment in a language like ...

It's quite common to do some extra processing of data during a GridView's Row_DataBound event. You can normally capture the value of the GridView cell like this, which would capture the value of the 3rd column in the grid (row count is 0 based).  If e.Row.RowType = DataControlRowType.DataRow Then     Dim Value as String = CType(e.row.cells(2).Text, String)     'some manipulation of cell data, such as formatting, etc.     e.row.cells(2).Text = NewValue End If This works well if the field is configured as a BoundField:  <asp:BoundField DataField="DataBaseFieldValue" HeaderText="Field Name" /> But if the field is configured like this, as a HyperLink field, then you must get to its value differently: <asp:HyperLinkField DataTextField="Symbol" HeaderText="Symbol" DataNavigateUrlFields="StockID"   DataNavigateUrlFormatString="EditStock.aspx?id={0}&ref=pp" SortExpression="s.symbol" /> This assume...

Woke Got What It Wanted By Victor David Hanson Stanford University The “woke” movement was giddy after Jan. 20, 2021. The left controlled both houses of Congress.President Joe Biden was drafted as the necessary veneer of 1980s Democratic normality to ram through an otherwise hard-left agenda. All the major cultural, financial, economic, entertainment, and media institutions had played various roles in seeing former President Donald Trump not just defeated, but also impeached, twice. He was written off as persona non grata after the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. So, academia, corporate boardrooms, Hollywood, the media, the Pentagon, professional sports teams, Silicon Valley, and Wall Street in near hysterical fashion all boarded the woke train. All boasted of ferreting out “white rage” and hiring legions of “diversity, equity, and inclusion” czars. Read more... Reducing a Great Republic to Despotism By Larry P. Arnn Hillsdale College Listen to Fauci on Face the Nation, dismissing his crit...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% month-over-month (m/m) in November, just above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 0.7% increase, and following October's unrevised 0.9% gain. The core rate, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.5% m/m, in line with forecasts, after October's unadjusted 0.6% rise. Y/Y, prices were 6.8% higher for the headline rate—the fastest pace since 1982—matching estimates, and following the prior month's 6.2% increase. The core rate was up 4.9% y/y, in line with projections, and following October's unrevised 4.6% increase. Key Factors The food index was up 0.7% month-over-month. On an unadjusted basis, the food index was up 6.1% year-over-year. The energy index was up 3.5% month-over-month. On an unadjusted basis, the energy index was up 33.3% year-over-year. The shelter index was up 0.5% month-over-month. On an unadjusted basis, the shelter index was up 3.8% year-over-year (which many observers think is grossly understated). The ...

With   inflation   running hot in October, American consumers paid slightly more for most goods and services compared to the previous month, and far more compared to a year ago. The Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI), a key inflation gauge that measures how much Americans pay for goods and services, rose 0.9 percent over the month in October and 6.2 percent over the year, with the annual figure reflecting the highest pace of price hikes in nearly 31 years. The agency’s report ( pdf ), released Nov. 10, breaks down how much prices have increased for certain key services and goods, including gas, food prices, electricity, and used cars. Seasonally adjusted figures are only available for the month-over-month comparison, while seasonally unadjusted data is available in both over-the-year and over-the-month formats. Gasoline : 49.6 percent year-over-year and 3.7 percent month-over-month seasonally unadjusted; 6.1 percent month-over-month, seasonally adjust...

Six months ago, any inflation was supposed to be transitory, meaning just temporary. But it seems to persist. I also think it's very strange that the government also reports inflation minues "food and energy." Do these people not live in the real world? Anyone know of a family budget that doesn't have a large part taken by "food and energy?" Anyway, I digress. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month-over-month (m/m) in October, above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 0.6% increase. The core rate, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.6% m/m, above the 0.4% expected, and following September's unadjusted 0.2% rise. Y/Y, prices were 6.2% higher for the headline rate, north of forecasted 5.9% rise and the quickest acceleration in 30 years. The core rate was up 4.6% y/y, above the projected 4.3% gain and August's unrevised 4.0% increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that the monthly all-items increase was broad based, and t...

Buried in the Budget Reconciliation Is the End of Right-to-Work, Independent Contractors; Climate Change Among the various major provisions of the PRO Act is effective nationalization of California's AB5 law that passed in 2019. This law makes hiring independent contractors much more difficult and specifies that contractors must be reclassified by businesses that hire them as employees, unless they meet specific and rigorous standards allowing them to stay independent. Read full article... Biden on Energy Crisis: Begging Others to Save Him From Himself It is on the costs of energy where Biden’s failures are most starkly visible. On his very first day in office, Biden scrapped the Keystone XL pipeline, killing 11,000 jobs in the process and making good on his campaign promise to be hostile to the fossil fuel industry. Continuing his assault on natural resource development, Biden suspended oil and natural gas leases in Alaska. Former President Donald Trump had propelled America to en...

One of the current issues facing the U.S. economy is more demand than supply can keep up with. Part of the issue has been government programs that have incentivized workers to stay home, and the result is a labor shortage and a record number of job openings, while the workforce participation rate drops to the lowest in decades.  In the meantime, Democrats on Capitol Hill have been busily working on a new spending package.  The cradle-to-grave subsidies in the 2,448-page, $3.5 trillion spending bill that Democrats in Congress are crafting will create a welfare trap for millions more Americans, send inflation soaring, and drive our nation much deeper into debt. Economic policy professor Chuck Blahous of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University analyzed the health benefit proposals in the spending bill. He wrote that expanding Medicare, Medicaid, and “so-called Obamacare” will “represent a major escalation of the fiscal irresponsibility lawmakers have practiced for the past...

As the months drag on, it's increasingly clear that Covid is more of a supply shock than a demand shock to the U.S. economy. Do you remember the endless stories about supply chain problems after the 2007-08 financial crisis? Nope. Neither do I. Because they didn't exist. Did we have soaring prices after 9/11? Nope. Container ship shortages after the dotcom collapse? Of course not. All the recent crises we've dealt with have been negative demand shocks to the U.S. economy. And that has empowered the Keynesian approach of filling demand drops with government stimulus--or consumer spending, as in the case of 9/11, when President Bush famously told families to go about their lives ("fly on airplanes...travel...Get down to Disney World") in order to keep the economy from worsening.  So naturally, when Covid hit, and people worried about a second Great Depression, policy makers threw more stimulus at the problem than ever before. But Covid is more and more a supply shoc...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed prices at the wholesale level in September rose 0.5% month-over-month (m/m), below the Bloomberg consensus estimate calling for a 0.6% gain, and south of August's 0.7% increase.  The core rate, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.2% m/m, below estimates of a 0.5% rise and the prior month's 0.6% gain. Y/Y, the headline rate was 8.6% higher, just shy of projections of an 8.7% increase and compared to August's 8.3% gain. The core PPI increased 6.8% y/y last month, south of estimates calling for a 7.1% rise, and following August's 6.7% increase. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at a level of 293,000 for the week ended October 9, versus estimates of 320,000 and compared to the prior week's upwardly-revised 329,000 level. The four-week moving average fell by 10,500 to 334,250, and continuing claims for the week ended October 2 dropped by 134,000 to 2,593,000, below estimates of 2,670,000.  The four-week moving average of con...

Stocks and U.S. Treasurys fell Friday after a weak jobs report added to speculation about the Federal Reserve's plan to taper its bond-buying program. September was the slowest month for job growth this year, with just 194,000 jobs added compared to consensus estimates for a half-million, signaling a slowing of the labor market recovery and perhaps complicating the Fed's decision on when to begin scaling back monetary support. Inflation concerns pushed long-term interest rates higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to 1.61% after adding 15 basis points on the week. But the three major stock market indexes finished modestly higher for the week, recovering from steep early losses after the U.S. Senate agreed to raise the debt ceiling for at least a few more weeks. The unemployment rate fell, but so did the important labor force participation rate, which has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020. And the number of people who are no...

 I got this question on Quora today. It's a common question. The answer I provided is below.  I got into debt young as I didn’t realize how important it was to have a good credit score. How can I get myself out of this mess? I’m worried it’s going to affect future relationships. You really must to want to be debt-free. There is no other way. It’s a process, of both knowledge of personal finance, and modifying your financial behavior. But it is something you can achieve, if you create a plan and follow the steps of sound financial planning. I’m going to tell you up front that it will take quit a bit of work and effort on your part, depending on how much debt you have, and what you are willing to do. We had a saying in the military about what needed to be done do accomplish our mission: “Whatever is necessary.” This will be the same kind of thing. So you have to develop the same mindset. Be hungry. Personal finance is 20 percent knowledge, and 80 percent behavior. When I starte...